黑龙江省未来41年气候变化趋势与突变分析

选用由英国Hadley中心区域气候模式系统PRECIS构建的基准时段（1961—1990年）和未来时段（2010--2050年）A2、B2情景气候数据，应用线性倾向估算法、累积距平及Mann—Kendall法对排放情景特别报告（SRES）中A2和B2情景下黑龙江省2010--2050年的平均气温、平均最高最低气温、降水量的变化趋势和突变进行了分析。结果表明：相对于基准气候（1961--1990年），未来41a平均气温表现出明显的上升趋势，A2、B2情景下年均气温分别升高1．63℃和1．94℃，突变分别发生在2031年和2033年；相对于基准气候，A2、B2情景下未来41a降水量分别增加5．3％和1．1％，降水量变化趋势不同，A2情景下为4．03mm／10a，B2情景下为5．94mm／10a，但趋势均不显著，且没有突变发生。总体上，黑龙江省未来41a的气候为向暖湿变化的趋势。

Climate Change Trend and Mutation Analysis of Heilongjiang Province in the Next 41 Years

Based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenario data taken from the PRECIS regional climate model of Britain Hadley Centre during the two periods-baseline climate period （1961--1990） and future climate period （2010--2050） , the analysis on tendency and abrupt change of mean, maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation of Heilongjiang was conducted by using linear tendency estimation method, cumulative anomaly analysis and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that annual rnean tempera- ture in the next 41 years （2010--2050） relative to the baseline climate （1961--1990） increases signifi- cantly by 1.63 ~C and 1.94 ~C under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Abrupt change of mean temper- ature occurs in 2031 under A2 scenario and occurs in 2033 under B2 scenario; relative to baseline cli- mate, the annual precipitation changes just increased slightly by 5.3% and 1.1% in the next 41 years under A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. The precipitation change tendency is 4.03 mm/10a under A2 scenario and 5.94 mm/10a under B2 scenario. But the difference of change tendency in A2 and B2 sce- narios is non-significant. To sum up, it is becoming warm-humid from cold-dry in Heilongjiang province in the next 41 years.