德州市高血压发病气象条件与预报模式

采用1999—2008年德州市人民医院高血压发病人数入院资料和德州市地面气象资料,应用逐步回归方法,分别建立四季的高血压发病人数与气象条件及其变化的线性回归关系模型,借鉴生活气象指数、医疗气象学等研究方法,利用聚类分析法将德州市高血压病发病等级划分为4级,从而预测每个季节德州市高血压的发生程度。结果表明：德州市高血压发病与气压、气温关系密切;大雾主要对冬季高血压发病有影响,冬季出现大雾,尤其出现连续性大雾时,高血压发病等级增高,大雾对其他季节高血压发病影响较小;高血压发病等级与日照时数呈负相关。秋冬季连续阴天寡照,高血压发病等级增高。

Weather conditions of hypertension incidence and its forecast model in Dezhou,Shandong province

Based on the hypertension disease data in the people′s hospital of Dezhou and the ground meteorological data from 1999 to 2008 in Dezhou,four liner models according to the relationships between the number of hypertension patients in four seasons and meteorological conditions were established by a step regression method.Considering the life meteorological index and the method of medical meteorology,the hypertension incidence was divided into 4 levels by a clustering analysis method.Accordingly,the incidence in the different seasons could be predicted.The results indicate that the hypertension incidence is related to air pressure and temperature.The heavy fog could influence the hypertension incidence in winter,while its impact is weak in other season.The level of hypertension incidence increases when the heavy fog occurs in winter,especially for continuous heavy fog weather.There is a negative correlation between the level of hypertension incidence and sunshine duration.The level of hypertension incidence increases because of consecutively cloudy weather and little sunshine duration in autumn and winter.