应用Penman公式对江西省太阳总辐射变化特征的探讨

利用1961～2000年赣州站、南昌站的年太阳总辐射与相关气象要素资料，结合Penman公式，运用6种计算净长波辐射的方法估算了两站的年太阳总辐射；建立了估算该地区年太阳总辐射的绝对误差权重法（Method of Absolute Errors，MAE），并给出了适用于江西省的绝对误差权重系数，以此方法计算了江西省其他76站的年太阳总辐射；并分析了该地区年太阳总辐射的时空分布特征及其变化趋势，发现：（1）1961~2000年间，江西省大部分地区太阳总辐射在3800～4400 MJ·m-2·a-1；南部偏东地区较大，且存在有一大值中心；西部地区为江西省太阳总辐射最小的地区；（2）40年间，江西省年太阳总辐射呈明显下降趋势，每10年减少143.70 MJ·m-2。78站中，有63站的太阳总辐射的下降趋势通过了α=0.05的显著性检验，8站表现为上升趋势；江西省北部及南部地区太阳总辐射下降较大；中部地区下降相对较小，且在鄱阳湖东侧有一低值中心。

Discussion on the Variation Characteristics of the Total Solar Radiation in Jiangxi Province Utilizing Penman Equation

Based on the annual total solar radiation and related meteorological data of monitoring stations of Ganzhou and Nanchang from 1960 to 2000, the annual total solar radiation of the two stations were calculated with six net long wave radiation formulas combinated with Penman equation. The Method of Absolute Errors (MAE), aiming at estimating the total solar radiation in the region, was proposed with the annual weight coefficients of MAE. The annual total solar radiation of the other 76 stations in Jiangxi Province was calculated with this method. Through the analysis of the temporal-spatial distribution and the trend of the annual total solar radiation of the province, the authors found that: (1) During 1961 to 2000, the value of the total solar radiation in the most parts of Jiangxi Province was 3800-4400 MJ·m-2·a-1. The total solar radiation was high in the southeast region, where there was a large value center. The west part had a lower value than the other parts of the province; (2) For the whole province, the total solar radiation decreased in the past 40 years with the ratio of 143.70 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1. Among the total 78 stations, 63 stations passed the 0.05 significance level and six stations presented an upward trend. The total solar radiation showed a relatively larger decline in the northern and southern region than in the center part. And there was a low value center on the east side of Poyang Lake.