CMIP5模式对EU、WP遥相关型的模拟评估和预估

基于国际第5次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）历史试验输出资料和情景模拟试验结果，评估了14个耦合模式对北半球冬季影响东亚冬季气候的遥相关型——欧亚型（EU）和西太平洋型（WP）的模拟能力以及其对局地气温、降水影响的模拟效果，并预估未来EU和WP变化。结果表明:（1）模式对EU、WP信号的整体年际变率有一定模拟技巧，对空间模态特征的模拟能较好再现遥相关的异常中心，但也存在一定的位置偏差。（2）模式和多模式集合能再现EU与东亚以及西北太平洋地区表面气温的负相关性，但对我国华北以及黄淮流域降水负相关性模拟能力较差，且低估EU与东亚地区气温、降水的关系。（3）各模式对WP与东亚—西太平洋区相关性的南负北正分布均有较好模拟能力，空间相关系数为0.5~0.9；多数模式能再现WP与降水在鄂霍次克海的正相关性，但对于我国大陆至西太平洋的负相关性模拟能力较弱，且各模式对WP和东亚地区表面气温关系的模拟优于其与降水的关系。（4）对EU、WP遥相关整体模拟能力S评分可知，CSIRO-Mk3.6.0对EU整体评估能力最强，CNRM-CM5对WP综合评估能力最好；而HadCM3整体评分较低。（5）RCP4.5情景下，EU和WP在未来略趋于负位相发展；EU与东亚气温相关范围向东南移动，与降水相关不显著；WP与气温相关范围高纬西撤、低纬东移，与降水相关显著增强。

Evaluation and Estimation of Eurasian and West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in CMIP5

The historical and future relationships between Eurasian (EU) and West Pacific (WP) teleconnection patterns,and regional winter temperature and precipitation in East Asia are evaluated by using 14 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Most of the models in CMIP5 have a good ability in simulating the interannual variabilities and spatial patterns of EU and WP,but there still exist certain deviations in the simulated positions of EU and WP.(2) Some of these models could reproduce the negative correlativity between EU and East Asia and Northwest Pacific surface air temperature,but their skill in simulating the relationship between EU and precipitation in North China and Huang-Huai valley was poor.Meanwhile,all of models underestimated the relationship between EU and temperature and precipitation in East Asia.(3) Each individual model and multi-model ensemble mean both showed a high capability in simulating the relationship between WP and temperature in East Asi~Westem Pacific region.The positive correlation between WP and precipitation in Northeast Asia and the Okhotsk Sea could be well reproduced;however,their capability for the simulation of the negative correlation from mainland China to western Pacific was poor.It is found that all the models could better simulate the relationship between WP and temperature compared to the simulation of relationship between WP and precipitation.(4) In terms of simulation ability score,CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 on the EU simulation is the strongest and CNRM-CM5 on WP is the best.HadCM3 has the worst model skill scores.(5) Under the RCP4.5 scenario,EU and WP in the future tend to be slightly more in negative phase.Significantly correlated area between EU and temperature in East Asia would shift southeastward based on CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 simulation,while the correlation between EU and precipitation would be insignificant.The correlated area between WP and temperature would shift westward in the high latitudes and eastward in the low latitudes,and the correlation between WP and precipitation would become stronger according to CNRM-CM5 simulation.