| 新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 姜大膀,苏明峰,魏荣庆,等.新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估[J].大气科学,2009,33(1):90-98. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 姜大膀 苏明峰 魏荣庆 等 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京,100029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目KZCX3-SW-229、KZCX2-YW-205， 国家科技支撑计划项目课题2007BAC03A01， 国家自然科学基金资助项目40505017 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用新疆气象局提供的90个气象台站的连续观测记录, 计算了1961～2003年新疆地区年平均和季节平均自适应Palmer干旱指数的气候态及其变化趋势, 表明新疆地区气候就平均态而言整体上属于正常的气候条件, 研究时段内年平均和季节平均气候以湿润化趋势为主要变化特征, 定性的分析显示地表气温的持续上升倾向于引起干旱化, 而降水的增加则有利于气候的湿润化趋势。在SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下, 21世纪90年代新疆地区地表气温的升高会导致干旱化的发生, 而降水的增加则有利于湿润化, 在二者的联合作用下, 新疆地区的干湿状况可能将发生一定程度的变化。
|
| 关 键 词： | Palmer干旱指数 新疆 变化 预估 |
Variation and Projection of Drought and Wet Conditions in Xinjiang |
| |
| JIANG Dabang,SU Mingfeng,WEI Rongqing.Variation and Projection of Drought and Wet Conditions in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(1):90-98. |
| |
| Authors: | JIANG Dabang SU Mingfeng WEI Rongqing |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000493.Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, ürümqi 830002; |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the continuous observation data at the 90 meteorological sites in Xinjiang,a self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index(PDSI) is firstly used to investigate the annual and seasonal variation of drought and wet conditions in the region during 1961-2003.During the concerned period,Xinjiang is characterized by normal climate condition,and both annual and seasonal mean climates are prone to become wetter as a whole.Qualitative analysis reveals that the recorded surface warming tends to induce droug... |
| |
| Keywords: | Palmer drought severity index Xinjiang variation projection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《大气科学》下载全文 |
|
