| 中国东部降水的随机动力预测初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 施晓晖,屠其璞,丁裕国.中国东部降水的随机动力预测初步研究[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(4):596-601. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施晓晖 屠其璞 丁裕国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南省气候中心
2. 南京气象学院环境科学系,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 95 中国气象局青年基金!“我国气候异常事件区域形态年际变率及可预报性研究” |
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| 摘 要： | 利用一个具有门限的非线性随机动力气候模式，对中国东部江淮流域的降水进行了预报试验。结果表明：模式能对大范围环流降水作出较为准确的形势预报。还比较了海气耦合模式与外强迫模式的预报效果，表明耦合模式的预报效果略好于外强迫模式。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 非线性随机动力模式 门限 预测 |
STUDY ON STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC FORECAST OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EAST CHINA |
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| Shi Xiaohui,Tu Qipu,Ding Yuguo.STUDY ON STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC FORECAST OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EAST CHINA[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1999,22(4):596-601. |
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| Authors: | Shi Xiaohui Tu Qipu Ding Yuguo |
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| Abstract: | A non linear stochastic dynamic model with threshold is applied to do forecast experiment for the rainfall in Changjiang Huaihe Reaches. Results show that the model can accurately forecast the precipitation caused by large scale circulation. The comparasion of forecast accuracy between air sea coupling model and external forcing model is also made,indicating that the former is a little better than the latter. |
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| Keywords: | rainfall non linear stochastic dynamic model threshold forecast |
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