淀山湖蓝藻发生程度气象预测模型

为了为淀山湖蓝藻控制提供技术依据,根据1998—2009年淀山湖蓝藻发生程度和同期气象资料,用相关分析方法分析淀山湖蓝藻暴发的气象条件,用逐步判别方法建立淀山湖蓝藻发生程度的气象预测模型。结果表明:主要影响淀山湖蓝藻暴发的气象因子是温度。气象指标为:7—8月平均气温大于等于29℃,6—9月日最高气温大于等于35℃日数大于等于16天,7—8月日照时数大于等于420h,6—8月降水量小于等于420mm;气象预测模型Ⅰ(起报时间6月初)和模型Ⅱ(起报时间8月初)拟合的准确率分别为91.7%和100%;2010年试报,模型Ⅰ预测正确,模型Ⅱ预测值比实际值低1级。建立的淀山湖蓝藻发生程度气象预测模型可应用于业务。

Prediction Model of Blue Green Alga Occurrence Based on Meteorological Factors in Dianshan Lake

In order to provide technical bases for blue-green alga treatment, according to the data on the degree of blue algal occurrence in Dianshan Lake and the observation data from 1998 to 2009, an analysis is made of meteorological conditions for the occurrence of blue-green algae by adopting the statistical method, and the prediction model is devised. The meteorological indexes of blue-green alga bloom are：＇ the mean temperature in July and August greater than 29℃; the number of hot days with daily maximum temperature above 35℃ is great than 16 days from June to September; the number of monthly sunlight hours is greater than 420 hours in July and August; the monthly rainfall is less than 420 mm from June to August. Based on the inspection of historical data, the result shows that the accuracy of Model I （prediction starts in early June） and Model II （prediction starts in early August） are 91.7% and 100%, respectively. The trial running in 2010 shows that the prediction result of Model I is correct and that of Model II is 1 grade lower than the real, which can be applied in operational meteorological service.