内蒙古地区采暖期变化特征及预测方法

利用内蒙古地区58个站点1961—2008年逐日平均气温资料,用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了内蒙古地区采暖期各要素变化特征,初步提出了采暖初日、终日和采暖期能源需求预测模型,并经过检验与实况基本相符。结果表明:①近48年内蒙古地区采暖初日推后、终日提前、采暖期缩短,说明随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季变暖,寒冷期缩短。②内蒙古地区采暖期要素的变化与纬度的高低密切相关。纬度越高,采暖期缩短越多,使表征采暖能耗多少的采暖度日值减少越明显,采暖期能源消耗越少,节能减排潜力越大。③随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季寒冷程度和寒冷期变短,采暖能源需求量减少,采暖能耗降低,其集中供热强度和耗热量降低,从而可减少CO_2、CH_4、SO_2等温室气体的排放强度。④采暖起止日、采暖长度以及采暖期能源需求与气温变化密切相关。由此构建的采暖初日、终日和能源需求预测模型,可信度较高,可根据月动力延伸预报产品,提早做出不同地区采暖起止日期和采暖期能源需求趋势预测,减少能源的浪费,为供热部门科学决策提供参考。

Variation Characteristics and Prediction Method of Heating Periods in Inner Mongolia

By means of the daily temperature during the period of 1961 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia and the mathematics statistics method,making reference to correlative regulation,the variation characteristics of various elements in heating periods are analyzed and the prediction model of the first day,last day and energy needs in a heating period is devised and tested.It is concluded that：（1） With climate warming,the dates of the first day of the heating period were delayed,and the dates of the last day of the heating period advanced;the heating period became shorter.It indicates the warmer and shorter winter in Inner Mongolia.（2） The variation of the elements in heating periods is closely related to the latitude across Inner Mongolia：the higher the latitude,the shorter the heating period,the lower the energy consumption,and the greater the emission reduction potential.（3） With the climate warming,because the shorter heating period and reduced energy needs and energy consumption,the emission of the greenhouse gases such as CO_2,CH_4 and SO_2 was reduced.（4） The variations of the elements in heating period were also closely related to temperature change.