云南气象地质灾害危险等级PP-ES预报方法

根据气象地质灾害与前期及当日降水的关系模型,对气象地质灾害危险等级进行模糊可能性描述,应用PP(完全预报法)原理,采用ES(专家系统)中的确定性因子法进行气象地质灾害预报的不确定性推理,所建立的气象地质灾害预报专家系统,在实际预报业务中取得了很好的效果,在2004年的汛期业务运行中,报准了全部重大气象地质灾害。结果证明:用完全预报方法原理,将气象地质灾害预报因子———降水量分为两段,第1段为实况降水量,第2段为预报降水量,建立预报模式是可行的;对于气象地质灾害这种小概率事件的预报,采用专家系统预报方法建立预报模式是行之有效的。

PP-ES Method for Predicting Hazard Grades of Meteorological-Geological Disasters in Yunnan Province

According to the relationship model between meteorological-geological disasters and prophase and antecedent precipitation,the fuzzy possibility of hazard grades for meteorological-geological disasters(MGD) is described.The PP (Perfect Prediction) principles and the certainty-factor method in ES(expert systems) are used to carry out the uncertainty-inference of MGD prediction,in order to establish the ES predicting model of meteorological-geological disasters.The model has been proved satisfactory in the flood season of 2004,predicted all the major meteorological geological disasters.The results indicate that it is feasible and effective to establish prediction model by dividing the precipitation(prediction factor) into two(actual and predicted) according to the PP principles and by using the expert-system predicting method for such low probability events as meteorological geological disasters.