登陆台风短时定量降水预报方法初探

利用登陆台风的GMS-5 IR1 TBB资料及地面自动站逐时雨量资料,初步建立了适用于登陆台风的定量降水估计(QPE)方法,基于QPE结果,采用外推法,初步实现了对登陆台风未来0~3 h的短时定量降水预报(QPF)。应用于0104号登陆台风“尤特”和0414号登陆台风“云娜”两个例表明:对单站逐小时雨量定量预报而言,如果50%相对误差可以接受,01、、23、h的QPF准确率分别达20%~70%、30%~80%、30%~70%、20%~60%;对于单站过程雨量定量预报而言,如果50%相对误差可以接受,0、1、2、3 h的QPF准确率基本都达60%~80%;对未来0~3 h的面雨量也具有一定定量预报能力。0~3 h QPF结果对实际短时登陆台风降水业务预报工作具有一定的参考价值。

Preliminary Study of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Method for Landfalling Typhoon

By using GMS-5 IR1 TBB of landfalling typhoon(LT) and hourly rainfall from ground automatic weather stations,a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) suitable for LT was found.Based on the results from the QPE method,the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast of 0 h to 3 h(QPF) for LT can be realized with the extrapolation method preliminarily.The applications of the QPF method to 0104 LT Utor and 0414 LT Rananim show that as far as single station hourly rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0 h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can reach 20% to 70%,30% to 80%,30% to 70%,and 20% to 60%,respectively;as far as single station process rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can all almost reach 60% to 80%;quantitative forecast for 0 h to 3 h area rainfall can also be provided,to a certain extent.The QPF results of 0 to 3 hours can serve as a reference for the operational short-term operational precipitation forecast for LT,to some degree.