塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地1961-1998年逐月平均气温序列的重建

 利用塔里木盆地周边27个气象站1961-2006年逐月平均气温和塔中气象站1999-2006年逐月平均气温资料，同时选取1961-2006年NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°经纬度距地表2 m的月平均气温再分析格点资料，分别用逐步回归分析、EOF分解和NCEP资料3种方法对塔中气象站1961-1998年历年逐月平均气温序列进行了恢复与重建，分析了误差，并与周边气象站的变化特征进行对比。结果表明，逐步回归和EOF法都能够作为重建塔中逐月平均气温的方法，但相对而言，逐步回归法重建的序列误差更小，平均拟合绝对误差为0.3℃，最大绝对误差为1.9℃。而NCEP/NCAR资料由于冬季存在明显的系统性误差，数值显著偏高，不能用于塔中气温序列的重建。

Reconstructed Series of Monthly Average Temperature from 1961 to 1998 in the Hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert

Monthly average temperatures from 1999 to 2006 at Tazhong weather station (39?0′N, 83?0′E) in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Dersert, and from 1961 to 2006 at 27 weather stations in the peripheral area of the desert, as well as the 2.5 　?.5 ?grid data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface monthly average temperature in the same period were used to reconstruct the time series of monthly average temperature at Tazhong from 1961-1998 by using the stepwise regression and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis methods. The fitting errors, decadal mean temperatures and their trends were compared with one another. The results show that both the stepwise regression and EOF methods can be used to reconstruct series of monthly average temperature at Tazhong, but the former is superior to the latter in relatively smaller errors; the former's average absolute fitting error is 0.3℃ and the maximum absolute fitting error is 1.9℃. However, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface monthly average temperature data can not be used due to its large positive systematic errors in winter season.