| 地壳形变与强震地点预测问题与认识 |
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| 引用本文： | 江在森,武艳强.地壳形变与强震地点预测问题与认识[J].地震,2012,32(2):8-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 江在森 武艳强 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对昆仑山口西8.1级地震和汶川8.0级地震震前GPS资料所反映的孕震特征的分析, 对地壳形变资料应用于孕震机理和地震预测研究中在最近几十年的主要进展进行了回顾分析, 并对比了中外学者针对上述问题科学思路的异同。 在此基础上, 对走滑型和倾滑型地震断层带区域孕震形变场特征进行分析, 强调孕震过程地壳形变的认识模式需要从孕震断层拓展到区域甚至更大区域, 并需从多尺度地壳形变时空过程来认识强震孕震形变动态特征, 进而获取强震预测判据。
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| 关 键 词： | GPS 弹性回跳 强震地点预测 形变场动态特征 应变率场 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-02-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-02-29 |
Crustal Deformation and Location Forecast of Strong Earthquakes: Understandings and Questions |
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| JIANG Zai-sen
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WU Yan-qiang.Crustal Deformation and Location Forecast of Strong Earthquakes: Understandings and Questions[J].Earthquake,2012,32(2):8-21. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Zai-sen WU Yan-qiang |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the preparation characteristics of the Kunlun 8.1 earthquake and the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake revealed from GPS data,we review the main research developments of earthquake mechanism and forecast using crustal deformation data in the past decades,and discuss the similarities and differences of scientific approachs between Chinese and foreign scholars.Deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation associated with slip faults and dip-slip faults are analyzed.It is emphasized that,in order to understand the model of relationship between the crustal deformation and earthquake preparation,we should expand the attentions from fault scale to regional scale,and recognize the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation in multi-scale,spatial-temporal process,and so to obtain the criteria of strong earthquake forecast. |
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| Keywords: | GPS Elastic rebound Earthquake preparation Dynamic characteristics of deformation field Strain rate field |
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