| 地震分布非均匀性指标Kcv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱玉荣,王晓青,郑友华,丁香,李智.地震分布非均匀性指标Kcv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究[J].地震,2011,31(3):27-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱玉荣 王晓青 郑友华 丁香 李智 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地震预测研究所;辽宁省地震局; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划重点课题(2008BAC44B02)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 理论研究和实际预测表明地震空间分布非均匀性指标Cv值是一种有效的预测指标.但目前使用的Cv值在同一信度水平下,其置信区间大小与空间分布的事件样本数大小有关,不便于结果的分析比较.本文在Cv值基础上定义了一个新的预测指标Kcv,并基于强震时空概率增益预测模型及其单项预测方法预测效能检验的方法,依据亚洲地震重点研究区近20...
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| 关 键 词： | Kcv值 Monte Carlo法 预测效能 概率增益 亚洲地区 |
Heterogeneity Parameter Kcv of Earthquake Spatial Distribution and its Preliminary Application in Forecasting Great Earthquakes in Asia |
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| QIU Yu-rong,WANG Xiao-qing,ZHENG You-hua,Ding Xiang,Li Zhi.Heterogeneity Parameter Kcv of Earthquake Spatial Distribution and its Preliminary Application in Forecasting Great Earthquakes in Asia[J].Earthquake,2011,31(3):27-36. |
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| Authors: | QIU Yu-rong WANG Xiao-qing ZHENG You-hua Ding Xiang Li Zhi |
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| Affiliation: | QIU Yu-rong1,WANG Xiao-qing1,ZHENG You-hua1,Ding Xiang1,Li Zhi2(1.Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,Beijing 100036,China,2.Earthquake Administration of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110031,China) |
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| Abstract: | The heterogeneity parameter Cv of spatial distribution of earthquake is an effective predictor of earthquakes.However,comparative analysis of their results is not very easy due to the uncertain relationship between the size of confidence interval and the size of the sample events of spatial distribution of Cv-value during the same level of reliability,which can impair its utility.In the present study,we defined a new parameter Kcv based on the parameter Cv.Further,according to the spatial-temporal probabili... |
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| Keywords: | Kcv-Value Monte Carlo Prediction performance Probability gain Asia |
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