中国大陆原地复发强震的基本特征及其预测

在印度板块与欧亚块相碰撞形成的喜马拉雅弧板块边界力作用下，中国大陆有自己独特的现代构造运动和地震活动基本格架。格架是两组近似于对数螺线的现代构造滑移线，即最大剪切应力和剪切应变集中释放的区，带。在这种格架控制下，强震和大震在原地或基本在原地重复发生是中国大陆地震活动的重要特征。本文还提出了ｉ－ｆ－ｊ复发轮回模式和估计当前轮回强震复发时间的概率分布以及计算未来强震复发概率分式。为中，长期预测原地复发

THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION FOR THE EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE IN SITU IN CHINA MAINLAND

In China mainland and its environs, there are unique neotectonic movement and basic seismicity framework under the action of the Himalayan Arc plate boundary force produced by the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. The framework is formed by the two group neotectionic slip lines approximate to logarithmic spirals, that is,the zones where the maximum shear stress and shear stain are concentrately released. It is a significant characteristic in this region that strong and large earthquakes recur in situ and near it under the domination of the framework. In this paper, it is also suggested that i-f-j cycle recurrence model,and calculated that the probability distribution of the time which the strong earthquakes recur in the present cycle and that probability formulae for the strong recurrence in the future, and provided that a new quantitative method and way which predict the strong earthquake recurrence in situ in moderate-long term earthquake prediction.