东昆仑断裂带地震复发间隔及地震危险性

东昆仑断裂带是青藏高原东北部一条重要的活动断裂, 构成了巴颜喀拉块体的北边界。 根据阿尼玛卿山两侧滑动速率和历史地震的差异, 将断裂带分为东西两个部分。 滑动速率由西向东递减, 近百年的历史地震产生的破裂基本覆盖了西部和东部的一部分。 随着巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震的持续发生, 作为块体北边界的东昆仑断裂带的地震空区及地震潜势研究变得更加重要。 近些年通过对东昆仑断裂带不同段的研究得到了较多的滑动速率和古地震序列数据, 为评价断裂带未来百年地震危险性提供了有利条件。 利用NB模型中的对数正态分布方法, 得到了东昆仑断裂带在未来100 a的发震概率, 研究表明, 东部(玛曲段)发震概率相对较高, 需要进一步关注。

Repeating Intervals and Potentials of Earthquakes in the Eastern Kunlun Fault Zone

East Kunlun fault zone is an important fracture in the northeast of Qinghai—Tibet Plateau and constitutes the northern boundary of Bayan La block. According to the differences of sliding rate and historical earthquakes on both sides of Annemaqen Shan Mountains, we divide the fault zone into two parts, the eastern and the western. Slip rate gradients decrease from west to east, and the rupture caused by historical earthquake in the past hundred years basically covers the western and a part of the eastern parts. With the continuous occurrences of strong earthquakes in the edge of Bayan La block, the study on seismic gap and seismic potential of the eastern Kunlun fault are becoming more and more important. Recently, through the study of different sections of the eastern Kunlun fault, more slip rates and paleo-earthquake sequence data have been obtained, which provide favorable conditions for evaluating the potential dangers in the next 100 years. We estimate earthquake probability in the next 100 years for the eastern Kunlun fault by the NB logarithm-normal distribution model. The Maqu segment of the eastern part has a higher earthquake probability.