| TIP方法在大华北地区预报效能的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建中,韩晓雷.TIP方法在大华北地区预报效能的研究[J].华北地震科学,1994,12(4):55-59. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建中 韩晓雷 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来大华北地区存在的ＴＩＰ，即强震发生概率增长时间，结果表明８次中强震有７次发生在被判定为概率增长时间内，ＴＩＰ警戒占研究总时空域的４０．７％，Ｒ评分为０．４６８。获得了较好的中强震中期预测内符效果，表明该方法可作为大华北地区中强震中期预报的手段之一。
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| 关 键 词： | M8算法 地震流函数 地震预报 预报效能 |
A STUDY OF THE PREDICTION EFFFCTIVENESS OF TIP METHOD IN LARGE NORTH CHINA AREA |
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| Zhang Jianzhong, Han xiaolei.A STUDY OF THE PREDICTION EFFFCTIVENESS OF TIP METHOD IN LARGE NORTH CHINA AREA[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,1994,12(4):55-59. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Jianzhong Han xiaolei |
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| Affiliation: | Seismological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the TIP, that is the probability increase time of the strong earthquakes occerrence, existing in North China area since 1979 by modified M8 algorithm.The result shows that 7 of the8 moderately strong earthquakes occurred in Probability increase time, the TJP warnings.makes up 40.7% of the studied total time-space domain,. the evaluated point of R is.0T468, objaining a relativelygood mid-term prediction effect of moderately strong earthquakes,which indicates that this metbod canbe used as one of mid - term prediction means of moderately strong earthquakes.,in lage North Chinaarea. |
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| Keywords: | M_8 algorithm main shock after shock earthquake flww function |
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