基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。

Seismic Risk Assessment of High-speed Railway ContinuousGirder Bridges Based on Fuzzy Theory

In this paper, based on fuzzy theory, we propose a seismic economic risk assessment method for bridge systems and take a high-speed railway continuous girder bridge as an example. We adopted a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and performed combined damage analyses of the displacement-based support and sections of a curvature-based pier. The results showed that the proposed analysis method of the fuzzy seismic economic risk for bridge systems can comprehensively and accurately calculate the economic losses of continuous girder bridges under earthquake. We found the error for the seismic economic loss to be larger when pier components are used to represent the whole bridge. This framework method for determining the annual expected risk of loss based on fuzzy theory can comprehensively assess the direct economic risk of a high-speed railway continuous girder bridge based on the probabilistic characteristics of the structural seismic performance. In addition, this method can be used to make reasonable evaluations of the seismic design, maintenance, reinforcement, and post-disaster reconstruction of high-speed railway continuous girder bridges.