The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation |
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Authors: | Jiang Chang-sheng and Wu Zhong-liang |
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Affiliation: | (1) Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, 100081 Beijing, China;(2) College of Earth Science, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China |
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Abstract: | Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M
W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there
exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of
1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M
W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the
critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this
earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.
Foundation item: Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406).
Contribution No. 05FE3010, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. |
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Keywords: | the 2004 off the west coast of northern Sumatra M W=9 0 earthquake accelerating moment release (AMR) before earthquakes power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation |
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