石屏——建水断裂带未来三十年内七级以上大地震危险性分析

本文通过对历史上曾发生过多次强烈地震的石屏—建水断裂带结构特征、新活动表现特点及1799年与1887年两次石屏大地震的发震构造、震害分布情况的分析研究,得出该断裂带全新世平均水平滑动速率为3—3.6毫米/年;1799年与1887年两次大地震震级分别达7级与7.5级,以及该断裂未来三十年内发生7级以上大地震可能性不大的结论。

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS TO SHIPING-JIANSHUI FAULT ZONE IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS

Quite a few strong earthquakes occurred in Shiping-Jianshui fault zone in history. In this paper, the authors have analyzed and studied the zone's structural feature and neotcetonic movement property; and the seismogenic structure and hazard distribution of the two Shiping great earthquake which occurred in 1799 with M = 7.0 and in 1887 with M = 7.5 respectively. The research results show that the average horizontal slip rate it the zone in Recent was 3 -3.5 mm/year. Their conclusion is that the possibility of a great earthquake (M = 7.0) will be small in the zone in the next 30 years.