云南地下水中Rn和Hg震兆特征对比分析

以大量的实际观测资料及多次震例 ,深入研究了地下水中Rn和Hg的震兆特征。结果表明 :Hg对地壳岩石应力应变的反应程度比Rn更灵敏 ,更有利于地震预报。通过研究得出以下几点认识 :(1)大震前 ,Hg有 1年左右的中期趋势异常且都出现在距震中较近的有利部位 ,Rn有 1— 2年的趋势异常出现在距震中 5 0 0km范围内 ;(2 )大震前 ,大多数观测台站能观测到Hg突出的短临异常 ,而Rn出现短临异常的台站数只有Hg的1/ 2 ,且异常幅度小 ;(3)中强地震前 ,在距震中较近的观测台站 ,能观测到Hg异常 ,相同条件下的Rn异常则不明显。地下水中Rn和Hg的这些异常特征对未来地震三要素的预报有一定帮助。

Comparison and Analysis of Seismic Precursor Features for Rn and Hg in Underwater in Yunnan

Hg is a sensitive element to temperature and pressure, and Rn is a radiative gas. The difference of chemical features between both the elements will be reflected in different characteristics of seismic precursors. The seismic precursor characteristics of Rn and Hg in underwater are analyzed on the basis of a vast amount of observation data and many earthquake examples. The results show that Hg is more sensitive to stress and strain of rock in crust than Rn and has better effect of earthquake prediction. Some understandings can be obtained as follows through the analysis: 1. Before large earthquake, Hg has medium-term tendency anomaly for a year or so which appears in favorable location near epicenter and Rn has tendency anomaly for one to two years which appears within 500 km to epicenter; 2. Before large earthquake, the majority of stations can get striking short-impending anomaly for Hg, but the number of stations with short-impending anomaly for Rn is only 1/2 of the number of stations with short-impending anomaly for Hg and with low anomaly amplitude; 3. Before moderate and strong earthquakes, the stations near epicenter can observe anomaly for Hg and can not get obvious anomaly for Rn. The anomalous features for Rn and Hg in underwater will be helpful to predict the three elements of future earthquake.