| 典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆军,王劲松,赵海娟,敦金平.典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(9):2032-2036. |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆军 王劲松 赵海娟 敦金平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台,昆明 650011;
2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
3. 国家空间天气监测预警中心,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 空间灾害天气的太阳驱动源研究，国家自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了1988~2006年中62个典型的太阳质子事件,发现其归一化后峰值流量变化具有很好的统计规律,根据该规律提出了一种对太阳质子事件峰值流量进行预报的方法.试验预报结果表明,太阳质子事件峰值流量的预报值和实测值都在同一个量级以内,平均相对误差为32％,预报误差在可接受范围内.本文方法对于日常预报业务而言是实用和可行的.
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳 太阳活动 太阳质子事件 空间天气 预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-04-30 |
A method for predicting the maximum flux of solar proton event |
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| MU Jun,WANG Jing-Song,ZHAO Hai-Juan,DUN Jin-Ping.A method for predicting the maximum flux of solar proton event[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010,53(9):2032-2036. |
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| Authors: | MU Jun WANG Jing-Song ZHAO Hai-Juan DUN Jin-Ping |
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| Affiliation: | 1. National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011, China;
2. Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3. National Center for Space Weather, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Sixty-two typical solar proton events during 1988~2006 are analyzed. It is found that the top flux figure change has good statistic regularity after the data is normalized. A method for predicting the top flux of solar proton event is put forward. All the events are predicted for the top flux. The result of the examination indicates that the predicted values and observed values are on the same order of magnitude, and the relative standard deviation is ±32%. The error level is acceptable and the method is reliable for daily monitoring of space weather. |
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| Keywords: | Sun Solar activity Solar proton event Space weather Prediction |
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