基于微博传播的舆情演进案例研究

以"三亚宰客门"事件为案例,应用凸面镜及共振等社会物理学原理,剖析微博传播对该事件形成的作用机理;通过内容分析法,描绘微博传播作用下该舆情事件的"发生→发展→消解"演进模式;采用定量统计与"知微"平台微博传播影响力分析,剖析该事件舆情演进的动因:一是主管部门遮掩事实,成为网民情感负面态势的推动力;二是微博活跃用户的介入,成为舆情产生与发酵的催化剂;三是主动议程设置不当,错失舆情消解的良机。

The Case Study on the Evolution of Public Opinion Based on MicroBlog-spread

This paper analyzed the function mechanism of microblog-spread taking "Sanya events about overcharging the tourists" as an example with the help of social physics methods of convex mirror and resonance. And then, the authors discussed the evolution model of public opinion of the special case, which includes three phases of "occurrence→development→involuting", under the impacting of microblog-spread. Finally, the authors explored the facilitating factors of public opinion evolution through the analysis by the platform of "www.weibo reach.com" and the quantitative methods. And the facilitating factors are as follows: the facts covered-up by the supervisors promote the negative situation of net users' emotion; the public opinion leader got involved becomes the catalyst which results in generation and fermentation of the public opinion; and the agenda settings inappropriately makes the administrators miss the opportunity of resolving the public opinion.