基于系统动态学方法的弱信号生命周期建模与仿真

目的/意义]为增强弱信号的内涵研究,对其全生命周期过程下的各阶段要素以及要素间的联系进行探寻,以期获得一定程度上的理论贡献,同时也为相关组织在开展弱信号管理实践时提供理论指导。方法/过程]在对弱信号概念研究现状进行梳理的基础上,结合意义构建理论给出了弱信号概念界定。随后,通过与信息生命周期、新兴议题生命周期进行类比,提出弱信号生命周期理念。进而采用系统动态学方法开展系统思考,使用因果回路图进行系统建模,运用存量流量图进行仿真模拟。结果/结论]弱信号生命周期包含4个阶段:侦测、关联、传递、抉择,相应的系统动态学模型所具备的现实性得到验证,且通过情景模拟确认了4个关键辅助变量:外界噪声干扰程度、弱信号分析效率、组织内相互信任程度、决策者信任程度。在整体研究的基础上,给出弱信号管理过程中可能会遇到的障碍以及应对策略。

The Life Cycle of Weak Signals Modeling and Simulation Using System Dynamics Approach

Purpose/significance] This paper explores the elements in stages of weak signals life cycle and relationship between them, to enhance the connotation research of weak signals and get theoretical contribution to a certain extent, hoping to give theoretical guidance to some organizations in weak signals management.Method/process] Firstly, this paper has a literature review on weak signals concept. Then it presents a concept of weak singles in the context of intelligence studies and in combination with sense-making theory. Secondly, it proposes the life cycle of weak singles by analogy of the information life cycle and emerging issues life cycle. Thirdly, modeling and simulating by systems thinking and System Dynamics (SD) tools which are Causal Loop Diagram and Stock-flow Diagram.Result/conclusion] Verifying the weak signals life cycle has 4 stages:detection, relevance, transmission, choice. Testing the feasibility of SD model and 4 critical auxiliary variables by scenario simulation, such as noise interference, analysis efficiency, trust degree in organization, and trust degree in decision makers. Moreover, it takes some barriers of weak signals management and solutions based on this research.