颠覆性技术识别方法发展现状及启示

目的/意义]颠覆性技术能变革传统生产模式和消费结构，使产业格局巨变。识别潜在颠覆性技术有助于抢占科技制高点，在科技竞争中取得先发优势。方法/过程]通过主题检索和引文回溯搜集文献，梳理颠覆性技术现阶段的主要识别方法。结果/结论]发现方法的选择与研究人员学科背景密切相关，根据研究人员的主要研究领域，将其划分为图书情报、工程管理、经济研究和Christansen流派4类识别方法。在此基础上对识别方法进行7个维度的比较，指出现有方法存在3个问题：过度依赖专家评价、识别标准针对性不足和超前识别效果不佳，其中识别标准针对性不足是核心问题。鉴于此，在后续研究中应当从多种角度不断探究和完善技术颠覆潜力的评价方法。

Overview and Considerations on Disruptive Technology Identification Method

Purpose/significance] The disruptive technology can change the traditional production mode and consumption structure, to make the industrial pattern change dramatically. Identifying potential disruptive technologies will help people to seize the commanding heights of science & technology and gain the first-mover advantage.Method/process] Collecting literature through subject retrieval and citation tracing, the present stage of the main identification method of the disruptive technology is summarized.Result/conclusion] The selection of methods is closely related to the academic backgroud of researchers. According to their main research fields, they are divided into four kinds of method:library and information, engineering management, economic research and Christansen School. And then, seven dimensions of recognition methonds are compared and three problems are poinrted out:over-reliance on expert evaluation, inadequate pertinence of indentification standards and inadequate effect of advance indentification. So, in future study, disruptive technology indentification should be explored in various perspectives.