面向监测预警过程的民族关系知识管理研究

民族关系发展演化过程中的内在规律和历史经验是监测预警的重要基础。提出基于知识管理的民族关系监测预警框架，并从知识的表达、预警过程以及知识管理实施等方面进行研究。采用民族问题案例和预警规则来表达民族关系知识，其中，案例用于组织分布广泛的难以表达的历史经验，预警规则用来表达民族关系内在规律；在预警机制实现上，将案例推理和规则推理集成在一起，能够克服各自的局限性，增强预警系统的灵活性和综合推理能力。

Research on Ethnic Relations Knowledge Management for Monitoring and Early-warning Process

Ethnic relations inherent laws and historic experience are important basis for monitoring and early warning. Early-warning framework based on knowledge management is proposed, which is discussed detailedly from knowledge representation, early-warning process and knowledge management implementation. Case and rule are adopted to represent ethnic relations knowledge. In the early-warning execution, case-based reasoning(CBR) and rule-based reasoning(RBR) are integrated into reasoning process, which can overcome two respective weaknesses of CBR and RBR, and enhance early-warning system’s flexibility and synthesis reasoning ability.