体育产业与养老产业融合发展逻辑与潜力研究

促进体育产业与养老产业融合发展是培育我国体育消费新业态的重要抓手。运用文献资料调研、专家访谈和定量分析方法,揭示新时代我国体育产业与养老产业融合的经济逻辑,并通过耦合协调度和灰色预测分析两产业融合的发展潜力。研究发现:两产业融合是在体育产业成长的理性约束和养老产业成长的内生激励作用下,以促进消费者福利和生产者剩余的整体改善目标为导向,由老年体育市场主体积极探索老年运动康乐消费新业态的集成创新过程;体育产业与养老产业的耦合协调度虽然逐年提升,但整体还未达到均衡水平,两产业融合的发展机遇与挑战并存;未来我国老年体育市场的消费空间虽然将伴随城镇老年人人均可支配收入的增长而持续拓展,但总体上的增势在放缓,两产业融合的发展预期向好并且任务仍然艰巨。基于此,提出着力激发老年体育市场主体活力、稳步提高老年人体育消费支付能力、务实开展嵌入全民健身的人口老龄化国情教育等具体建议。

Research on Logic and Potential of Integrated Development ofSports Industry and Pension Industry

Boosting integrated development of sports industry and pension industry is an important starting point to cultivate new forms and models of sports consumption in China.With the methods of literature review,expert interview and econometric analysis,this paper reveals the economical logic of the integration of the two industries in the new era using coupling-coordination degree and grey system modeling to evaluate the market potential of the integration.The results showed that integration of the two industries is an integrated innovation process in which the elderly sports market subjects actively explore the new forms of sports recreation consumption for the elderly under the rational constraints of the growth of sports industry and the endogenous incentives of the growth of pension industry,guided by the overall improvement goal of promoting consumer welfare and producer surplus.Although the coupling coordination of sports industry and pension industry is improving year by year,the overall level has not reached equilibrium,and the development opportunities and challenges of the integration of the two industries coexist.In the future,although the consumption space of sports market for the elderly in China would continue to expand with the growth of per capita disposable income of the urban elderly,the overall growth trend is slowing down,and the development of the integration of the two industries is expected to be good and the task is still difficult.Thus,the advices were focused on stimulating the vitality of the elderly sports market,steadily improve the elderly sports consumption ability to pay,pragmatically carry out the national education of population aging embedded in national fitness.