中国足球超级联赛U23新政何以有效?——基于“足协-俱乐部”的博弈

中超联赛自2017赛季推出U23新政以来备受争议。在"上有政策下有对策"的非合作博弈下，U23新政如何才能实现政策初衷?该文首次采用不完全信息静态博弈模型分析了U23新政下足协与俱乐部的博弈均衡。研究表明：（1）足协推行新政的最优概率为俱乐部采取积极策略给足协带来的净收益与消极策略带来的净收益之比，实质上取决于俱乐部的遵从度。（2）在缺乏讨价还价权时，俱乐部对新政采取消极应对策略是为了减少净损失。俱乐部积极应对的最优概率为消极应对的净损失占其与积极应对的加成即期收益损失之和的比值，实为两害相权取其轻。为激励俱乐部采取积极策略，应降低俱乐部消极应对策略的净收益或积极应对策略的加成即期收益。（3）提高U23新政有效性的治标之策是减少U23政策对中下游球队的冲击，实行有差别的U23政策；对U23球员上场时间低于均值的俱乐部，实行等额或超额递减分成机制。治本之策是培育一个可预期、可持续、可盈利的足球市场，俱乐部能够内生出建立百年基业的长效机制；继续深化足协的去行政化改革，使之向完全社团法人转型。

How does U23 New Deal ofthe Chinese Football Association Super League Succeed?A Study Based on Game between CFA and Clubs

The U23 New Deal of The CSL has been controversial since the launch of the season 2017. Under the non-cooperative game of "Where there is a measure, there is a countermeasure", how can the U23 New Deal achieve the original intention of the policy? For the first time, by utilizing the incomplete information static game model, this paper analyzed the game equilibrium between the CFA and the clubs under the U23 New Deal. The research showed that:(1) the optimal probability of the implementation of the CFA's New Deal, was the ratio of the CFA's net income brought by the club's active strategy and the CFA's net income brought by the club's negative strategy, which essentially depended on the compliance of the club. (2) In the absence of bargaining power, the club's negative response to the New Deal was to reduce net losses. The optimal probability that the club responded positively was the ratio of the net loss of the negative response to the sum of it and the loss of the markup spot income of the positive response, which was actually the lesser of two losses. In order to motivate the club to adopt a positive strategy, the net income of the club's negative strategy or the markup spot income of the positive strategy should be reduced. (3) In order to improve the effectiveness of the U23 New Deal, the policy of governing the symptoms was to reduce the shock of the U23 policy on the middle and lower teams, and implement the differentiated U23 policy. For the clubs whose U23 players played less than the average, the equal or excess deduction mechanism was implemented. The policy of treating the root was to cultivate a predictable, sustainable and profitable football market, in which the club could endogenously create a long-term mechanism for building a century-old foundation. It should continue to deepen the de-administrative reform of the CFA and transform it into a full corporate legal person.