| 阿拉善黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫预报的数学模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 秦长育,李仲来.阿拉善黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫预报的数学模型[J].宁夏医科大学学报,1995,17(2):115-117. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 秦长育 李仲来 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]宁夏地方病防治所750004 [2]北京师范大学100875 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据我国阿拉善黄鼠鼠疫自然疫源地1981～1993年鼠疫监测资料，采用多元逐步曲线回归分析，建立了预报阿拉善黄鼠鼠疫流行的数学模型，其拟合率为100%，并得出影响鼠疫流行的主要因子为黄鼠密度和巢蚤指数。
|
| 关 键 词： | 阿拉善黄鼠 疫源地 预报 数学模型 鼠密度 巢蚤指数 鼠疫 |
MATHEMATICALMODELSFORFORECASTOF EPIZOOTIC PLAGUE OF CITELLUS ALASCHANICUS |
| |
| Qin Changyu.MATHEMATICALMODELSFORFORECASTOF EPIZOOTIC PLAGUE OF CITELLUS ALASCHANICUS[J].Journal of Ningxia Medical College,1995,17(2):115-117. |
| |
| Authors: | Qin Changyu |
| |
| Affiliation: | Qin Changyu(Ningxia Institute of Endemic Disease)Li Zhonglai(Beijing Normal University) |
| |
| Abstract: | Using the collected data of 1981 1993 in plague natural foci ofCitellus alaschanicus,the
multivariate curve stepwise regression analysiswas conducted to forecast the prevalence of
epizootic plague. The correc-tive ratio was one hundred percent.Two primary factors were the
densityof Citellus alaschanicus and flea index in the nest. |
| |
| Keywords: | plague Citellus regression analysis mathematical models |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
