全面两孩政策下已育育龄妇女生育意愿的影响因素及其对策研究

目的：在全面两孩政策下，通过抽样调查上海市户籍已育育龄妇女二孩生育意愿，并分析其影响因素，为生育政策的实施及相关配套的完善提供参考。方法：采用目的抽样的方法，对上海市2个区4个街道的920名夫妻一方为上海市户籍家庭中15~49岁已育一孩妇女进行问卷调查，采用卡方检验、多因素Logistic回归模型进行二孩生育意愿影响因素分析。结果：回收有效问卷904份，其中有二孩生育意愿者20.7%，无意愿者57.7%，不确定者21.6%。回归分析结果显示，育龄妇女年龄、家庭年收入、夫妇类型、生育偏好和区域差异是妇女二孩生育意愿的重要影响因素。结论：全面两孩政策的实施对已生育一孩妇女的二孩生育意愿影响有限，意愿生育子女数明显低于政策允许生育子女数，除生育政策外，还有很多因素制约着人们的二孩生育意愿。全面两孩政策之后，延长产假、哺乳假和提供经济支持是最受期待的育儿支持政策。

Birth Desire and Influencing Factors in Those Women with One Child under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy

Objective：To investigate the influencing factors of the fertility desire in women of childbearing age in Shanghai under the comprehensive two-child policy, so as to provide a reference for improving the birth policy and the related measures. Methods: Using the method of target sampling, 920 couples in 4 Streets of 2 Districts of Shanghai were selected for the questionnaire survey. Those women, aged 15-49 years and with child, had the census register in Shanghai. The chi square test and Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of the fertility desire. Results: A total of 904 valid questionnaires were collected, among which 20.7% had the positive fertility desire, 57.7% were unintentional and 21.6% uncertain. The regression analysis showed that the influencing factors of the fertility desire were included: childbearing age, family income, type of couple, fertility preference and regional difference. Conclusions: The comprehensive two-child policy has the limited influence on the fertility desire in women of childbearing age. The actual number of childbearing children is obviously lower than that of policy permission. In addition to the fertility policy, there are many factors affecting the fertility desire. After the comprehensive two-child policy, it is necessary to extend the maternity leave and lactation leave, and to provide more economic support.