2016—2018年乌鲁木齐市日均气温对呼吸系统疾病的影响

目的 了解乌鲁木齐市日均气温在不同滞后日对呼吸系统疾病急救风险的影响。 方法 收集该市2016—2018年呼吸系统疾病的急救人次、气象和大气污染物数据。气象数据包括日均气温、相对湿度和平均气压;大气污染物数据包括细颗粒物、可吸入颗粒物、二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳的日平均浓度和臭氧的日最大8 h平均值。急救数据来自乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心,气象及大气污染物数据来自乌鲁木齐市主城区的6个国控监测点(收费所、铁路局、三十一中学、监测站、七十四中学、米东区环保局)。采用分布滞后非线性模型,分析日均气温与每日呼吸系统急救人数的关系。 结果 乌鲁木齐市日均气温对呼吸系统疾病急救风险影响的曲线为“N”形。在低温时,随着滞后天数的增加,呼吸系统疾病急救风险逐渐降低,然后随之增加;高温对呼吸系统疾病急救风险有一定的保护作用。在亚组分析中,低温对男性呼吸系统疾病急救风险的影响略高于女性;65岁以下人群在低温时受影响的风险更大。 结论 低温可能会造成呼吸系统疾病急救风险增加;而高温时会对呼吸系统疾病急救风险有一定的保护作用。不同年龄、性别对冷、热效应敏感性存在差异。

Effect of daily mean temperature on respiratory diseases in Urumqi, 2016-2018

Objective To understand the impact of daily mean temperature at different lag days on emergency risk of respiratory diseases in Urumqi. Methods We collected the data concerning the number of daily emergency ambulance dispatches due torespiratory diseases, meteorological and atmospheric pollutants in Urumqi from 2016 to 2018. Meteorological data included the daily mean temperature, relative humidity and average air pressure. Atmospheric pollution data included the mean daily concentration of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂ and CO and the mean daily concentration of maximum 8-hour O₃. The emergency data came from Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The meteorological and atmospheric pollution data came from the six monitoring sites (including toll collection, railway bureau, the 31st middle school, monitoring stations, the 74th middle school and Midong District Environmental Protection Bureau) in the main urban areas of Urumqi. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the relationship of daily mean temperature with the number of daily emergency ambulance dispatches due to respiratory diseases. Results An N-shaped relationship was found between daily mean temperature and emergency risk of respiratory diseases. When the temperature was relatively low, the risk of first aid due to respiratory diseases gradually decreased with the increase of lag days, and then increased. High temperatures had a protective effect against respiratory diseases. In a subgroup analysis, men were slightly more likely than women to be affected by respiratory diseases. People younger than 65 years of age were at greater risk of being affected by cold temperatures. Conclusion Low temperatures may increase the risk of first aid due to respiratory diseases, while high temperatures have protective effects against respiratory diseases. The sensitivities of cold and heat effects vary with different ages and gender.