信息化条件下海上局部战争减员影响因素指标体系构建

目的：建立一套科学、全面适应信息化条件下海战减员影响因素指标体系，为未来打赢信息化条件下海上局部战争，准确合理地预计海战减员人数奠定理论基础。方法运用文献归纳法、专家咨询法、模糊综合判断法，并通过3轮20名专家咨询确定信息化条件下海战减员影响因素及权重。结果经过3轮专家咨询，确立信息化条件下海战减员影响因素指标框架，包括一级指标3个，二级指标10个，三级指标42个。3轮专家咨询的积极系数分别是0．85、0．94、1，可操作性系数0．3342，敏感性系数0．2795，熟悉系数0．79。结论经过专家删除、修改各项指标，构建信息化条件下海战减员影响因素指标体系，可信度较高。

Construction of Index System for Factors Influencing Combat Attrition during Near Shore Zone Sea War-fare under Conditions of Informatization

Objective To establish a scientific and comprehensive index system for factors influencing combat attrition during near shore zone sea warfare under conditions of informatization , so as to provide evidence to predict combat attrition during near shore zone sea warfare and win victory .Methods Literature inductive meth-od, Delphi method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process were used in this research .20 experts were selected to help complete 3 rounds of consultation to determine factors and weights of each index .Results The finally determined indicators were 3 as primary,10 as the second level and 42 as the third.The recovery rates in 3 rounds of question-naire consultation were 85%,94% and 100%, operational coefficient was 0.3342, sensitivity coefficient was 0.2795, familiar coefficient was 0.79.Conclusion The index system for factors influencing combat attrition dur -ing near shore zone sea warfare under conditions of informatization was established after factors were deleted and modified, and the system was reliable.