中国河北省磁县1983年至2015年上消化道癌死亡率趋势分析

  目的   分析中国河北省磁县33年间上消化道癌死亡率变化情况，为肿瘤防治提供依据。   方法   按照肿瘤登记规范，收集整理磁县肿瘤登记处1983年1月1日至2015年12月31日肿瘤登记资料，评价上消化道癌死亡率变化情况，分析上消化道癌死亡率变化趋势。计算粗发病率、中国标准化死亡率和世界标准化死亡率的变化百分比，配合调整率的线性回归模型，估计死亡率的年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC），结合Joinpoint线性回归分析年份及年龄组死亡率转折点及变化趋势。   结果   磁县33年间上消化道癌平均粗死亡率为119.31/10万，其中男性为149.21/10万，女性为88.40/10万；中国标准化死亡率为160.85/10万，其中男性为227.00/10万，女性为108.07/10万；世界标准化死亡率为162.39/10万，其中男性为228.52/10万，女性为109.30/10万。   结论   上消化道癌死亡率呈下降趋势，仍居于磁县恶性肿瘤死亡率的首位，年龄组死亡率随年龄的升高而升高。 

Trends of upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality from 1983 to 2015 in Cixian County,Hebei Province

  Objective   To analyze the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer in Cixian County, Hebei Province, China, over the past 33 years, and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of such cancer.   Methods   According to the cancer registration regulations, changes in the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer were collected, sorted and evaluated, and the trends in the mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer were analyzed using the cancer registration data accumulated by the Cixian cancer Registration Office between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 2015. The percentage changes in crude mortality, standardized mortality in China, and the standardized worldwide mortality were calculated. The annual percent change of mortality was estimated using a linear regression model of the adjustment rate.   Results   Over the 33-year period in Cixian County, the average crude mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer was 119.31/100, 000, including 149.21/100, 000 for males and 88.40/100, 000 for females. The standardized mortality rate in China was 160.85/100, 000, including 227.00/100, 000 males and 108.07/100, 000 females. The worldwide standardized mortality rate was 162.39/100, 000, including 228.52/100, 000 males and 109.30/100, 000 females.   Conclusions   The mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer displayed a decreasing trend, but it still had the highest mortality rate of malignant tumors in Cixian County. Age-specific mortalities were increasing along with the rise of age.