启东市1972~2011年乳腺癌发病趋势分析

目的]探讨启东市1972-2011年乳腺癌发病变化趋势,为乳腺癌预防控制提供依据。方法]根据启东市1972-2011年癌症发病登记数据库,对乳腺癌发病率作年龄、时间趋势分析,计算指标包括粗发病率、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）、35-64岁截缩率、0-74岁累积率、累积风险、变化百分比（PC）及年均变化百分比（APC）等。结果]1972-2011年启东男女性乳腺癌共发病3452例,粗发病率为7.68/10万,占全部癌症发病的3.72%,位居癌症发病第6位。中标率和世标率分别为4.65/10万和6.13/10万;35-64岁截缩发病率为15.31/10万;0-74岁累积发病率为0.64%;乳腺癌发病的累积风险为0.64%。男女性乳腺癌发病性别比为1∶62.93。女性乳腺癌位居女性癌症发病的第4位,粗率、中标率和世标率分别为14.94/10万、9.00/10万和11.78/10万。女性乳腺癌的发病率随年龄的增加而升高,35-岁组进入增长期,50-岁组达到发病率高峰,为37.10/10万。40年间女性乳腺癌发病的粗率、中标率和世标率的变化百分比（PC）分别为269.74%、73.80%和81.48%,年均变化百分比（APC）分别为3.38%、1.21%和1.31%。各时期女性乳腺癌发病率显示25-34岁年龄组的升降趋势不明显,35-岁以后各年龄组的发病率均有上升趋势。年龄-出生队列方法分析女性乳腺癌,显示40-岁以后各年龄组的发病率均呈上升趋势。结论]启东近40年来女性乳腺癌发病率有上升趋势,40岁以上的女性是乳腺癌防治的重点。

An Analysis of Incidence Trend of Breast Cancer in Qidong, 1972--2011

Purpose] To investigate the incidence trend of breast cancer from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong,and to provide basis for making control measures and strategies for prevention. Methods] The cancer registration data of 1972-2011 were collected and analyzed for the incidence of breast cancer by age and time trend. Crude incidence,age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population（ASR China） and by world standard population（ASR world） , truncated rate （35 -64 age years old）, cumulative rate （0-74 age years old）, cumulative risk, percentage change （PC）, annual percentage change （APC）,incidence by period and birth-cohort were calculated. Results] The new breast cancer cases were 3452 cases from 1972 to 2011, accounted for 3.72% of the total cancer incidence,ranked 6th.The crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world were 7.68%/10s,4.65/ 10s and 6.13/lOS,respectively. Truncated rate （35-64 age years old） , cumulative rate （0-74 age years old） and cumulative risk were 15.31/105,0.64% and 0.64% ,respectively. The sex ratio of male to female was 1：62.93.The female breast cancer ranked 4th of all cancer sites in female,the crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world were 14 , 94/105 , 9.00/105 and 11.78/105. The incidence of female breast cancer increased with age, showing a rapid increase after age of 35 years, and a peek rate of 37.10/105 at age of 50-years group. During the forty years period,the PCs of crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world of female breast cancer were 269.74% ,73.80% and 81.48%, and the APCs, 3.38%, 1.21% and 1.31%, respectively. Age-specific incidence by period showed no significant up-down trends at age of 25-34 years, but upward trends after 35 years and over. Birth-cohort analysis illustrated the rising trends in incidence for those over age of 40 years. Conclusion] The incidence of female breast cancer increased from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong;the attention should be paid for Women over 40 years in prevention of breast cancer.