单核细胞淋巴细胞比值与急性百草枯中毒患者预后的相关性

目的本研究旨在探讨血清中单核细胞淋巴细胞比值(monocytes to lymphocyte ratio,MLR)与急性百草枯(paraquat,PQ)中毒患者全因死亡之间的关系。方法本研究回顾性选取2013年12月至2018年10月收治于南昌大学第一附属医院的急性PQ中毒患者,随访至2019年7月1日。主要终点事件为全因死亡。根据血MLR值将患者平均分为四组,同时根据受试者工作特性(receiver-operating characteristic,ROC)曲线分析确定的最佳MLR截止值0.61分为两组,采用Kaplan-Meier曲线进行生存分析,Cox比例风险回归模型分析相关危险因素,ROC曲线评估MLR对急性PQ中毒患者死亡风险的预测效能。结果共纳入117例患者,其中男49例,女68例,年龄(36.91±16.00)岁,全因死亡为70(59.8%)例。K-M曲线显示Quartile 4组患者的远期预后较Quartile 1、Quartile 2和Quartile 3差(Log-rank=33.376,P<0.01),MLR≥0.61较MLR<0.61组患者的全因病死率明显更高(Log-rank=26.451,P<0.01)。Cox回归模型分析结果提示MLR是急性PQ中毒患者死亡的独立危险因素(Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1:HR=2.773,95%CI:1.250~6.154,P=0.012)。ROC曲线结果表明MLR预测全因病死率的最佳截断值为0.61,曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.684(95%CI:0.591~0.767,P=0.0002),敏感性为47.14%,特异性为91.49%。结论MLR越高急性PQ中毒患者的死亡风险越高,MLR可作为该人群全因死亡的一个有效预测指标。

The relationship between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and prognosis in patients with acute paraquat poisoning.

Objective:To investigate the relationship between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) in serum and the all-cause mortality in patients with acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning.Methods:Patients with acute PQ poisoning in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from December 2013 to October 2018 were retrospectively selected and followed up until July 1, 2019. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Patients were classified into quartiles based on serum MLR and also dichotomized based on the optimal cutoff at a MLR of 0.61, determined from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors, and ROC curve was applied to analyze the predictive efficacy of MLR in all-cause mortality of acute PQ patients.Results:Of the 117 patients included in the study, 49 (41.88%) patients were male and 68 (58.12%) were female with a mean age of 36.91±16.00 years. The total mortality was 59.8% (70/117). On the Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients in quartile 4 had worse prognosis than patients in quartiles 1, 2 and 3 (Log-rank=33.376, P<0.01), and patients with MLR≥0.61 had a significantly higher all-cause mortality than those with MLR<0.61 (Log-rank=26.451, P<0.01). Cox regression model analysis showed that MLR was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality on the quartile analysis (quartile 4 vs. quartile 1: hazard ratio 2.773, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.250 to 6.154, P=0.012). ROC curve showed that the optimal cut-off value of MLR was calculated to be at 0.61, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.684 (95% CI: 0.591-0.767, P=0.0002), with a sensitivity of 47.14% and a specificity of 91.49%. Conclusions:High MLR was associated with mortality risk in patients with acute PQ poisoning, and MLR may be an effective predictor of all-cause mortality in this population.