中国高耗能产业碳排放强度的时空差异及其影响因素

高耗能产业是当前中国CO_2排放的重要来源,降低高耗能产业碳排放强度是实现中国2030年减排目标的主要抓手之一。本文利用中国30个省区2000—2015年的面板数据,在刻画高耗能产业碳排放强度的时空特征基础上,运用空间计量模型对其影响因素进行分析。研究结果显示:2000—2015年,中国高耗能产业碳排放强度下降趋势极为显著,空间上表现出"西高东低"与"北高南低"并存的分异格局以及明显的空间自相关特征;本地高耗能产业碳强度明显受到周边省份的影响,技术创新、对外贸易、产业集聚不仅对本地高耗能产业碳强度产生影响,而且还能通过空间溢出效应作用于周边地区,能源结构、产业结构、企业规模仅能作用于本地高耗能产业碳强度,环境管制的空间溢出效应显著,而经济发展水平和城镇化水平则对高耗能产业碳强度的影响不显著。从空间溢出效应、主导因素、区域差异化、应对产业转移四个方面提出了降低高耗能产业碳强度的政策建议。

Spatio-temporal differences in carbon intensity in high-energy-intensive industry and its influence factors in China

High-energy-intensive industry is an important source of CO₂ emissions in China. Reducing the carbon intensity in high-energy-intensive industry (CIHII) is one of the main ways to achieve China''s emission reduction targets by 2030. By using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015 based on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CIHII, we further analysed the impact factors using spatial econometric models. The results showed the following:1) from 2000 to 2015, the CIHII showed a significant downward trend, decreasing from 8.70 to 4.58 tons/ten thousand yuan. 2) The CIHII varied greatly among provinces, with a regional pattern of "higher in the west than in the east" and "higher in the north than in the south." In addition, CIHII also had significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics. 3) The local CIHII was obviously affected by the surrounding provinces. Technological innovation, foreign trade, and industrial agglomeration not only had an effect on the local high-energy-consuming industries but also affected the surrounding provinces through spatial spillover effects. Energy structure, industrial structure, and enterprise scale could only act on local CIHII. The spatial spillover effect of environmental regulation was significant, while the economic development level and urbanization had no significant effect on CIHII. Finally, based on the research findings, we proposed policies to reduce CIHII from four aspects:spatial spillover effects, dominant factors, regional differences, and industrial transfer.