干旱区典型绿洲城市发展与水资源潜力协调度分析

基于1995-2010年城市发展与水资源开发利用现状,构建了城市发展与水资源潜力的综合评价模型及二者的协调度模型,以探讨乌鲁木齐城市发展及水资源潜力的变化与二者的协调关系。结论如下:(1)乌鲁木齐市的城市发展综合水平基本呈逐年上升趋势,其中经济发展与人口增长是乌鲁木齐城市发展的主要形式,社会进步和空间扩张对城市综合发展的影响相对较小。(2)水资源开发利用潜力的变化波动性较强,总体呈现下降趋势,主要受水资源本底条件变化的影响,水资源利用效率和管理能力的提高则促进水资源潜力的提升。(3)城市发展与水资源系统的协调度先升后降,呈倒U字型变化,总体二者的协调发展度不高,城市发展系统和水资源系统的矛盾日渐突出。

Analysis of coordination degree between urban development and water resources potentials in arid oasis city

With the acceleration of urbanization and globalization of economy, the relationship between economy, resources, ecosystem and environment has attracted extensive attention.In the arid area of northwest China, the oasis urban development has been strongly restricted by water resources shortage and fragility of ecosystem and environment.Based on data about urban development and water resources of Urumuqi from 1995 to 2010, the relationship between urban development and water resources potentials was discussed in this study, which important for sustainability of oasis economy, society, ecosystem and environment in arid areas.First,sixteen indexes of population, economy, society and space were used to characterize the level of urban development, and fifteen indexes from natural background, exploitation, utilization efficiency and management of water resources were selected to quantify water resources potential.The weights of indexes were determined using AHP based on entropy theory.Then comprehensive evaluation models were built to analyze the change of urban development level and water resources potential.At last, the model describing coordination degree between urban development and water resource potential was constructed and improved repeatedly to quantitatively evaluate the coordination relationship of Urumqi city.This study showed that: (1) the urban development level of Urumqi increased from 0.0771 of 1995 to 0.9263 of 2010.The rapid increases of urban population and GDP caused significant increase of comprehensive level of urban development whereas the social progress and expansion of the urban space had relatively small impact.(2) Water resources potential showed an overall downward trend with fluctuation.Comprehensive index of water resources potential dropped from 0.4722 of 1995 to 0.3520 of 2010.The natural background of water resources was the main factor affecting water resources potential.Over-exploitation of groundwater resources caused significant increase of degree of water resources exploitation, and thus the decrease of water resources potential.The improvement of utilization efficiency and management enhanced water resources potential.(3) The coordination degree between urban development and water resource systems increased first and decreased afterwards.Generally, the coordination degree in the past years was low and the conflict between the two systems has been intensified.