玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用评价方法

水资源短缺是制约玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续发展的"瓶颈"因素,对流域水资源可持续发展水平进行综合评价对其国民经济可持续发展至关重要。从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境四个子系统出发,采用了熵值法和投影寻踪理论相结合的评价模型,对流域水资源可持续利用水平进行评价,并将两种方法的评价结果进行加权求和,得出流域水资源可持续利用变化趋势。评价结果表明,该模型方法可靠,分析结果合理,评价结果可以为水资源可持续开发利用提供科学依据,是评价水资源可持续利用水平的一种有效新方法。最后,提出了促进流域水资源可持续利用的建议,为实现水资源可持续开发利用提供借鉴和参考。

The evaluation method of water resources sustainable utilization in Manas River Basin

Water shortage and its sustainable management are important issues in the Manas River basin. In this paper, the evaluation model has been developed based on entropy and projection pursuit theory, and then the sustainable level of water resources has been evaluated from water, social, economic and ecological environment systems. The result showed that the evaluation method is reliable and reasonable. As a new method for evaluating water resources, it can provide scientific basis for the sustainable use of water resources. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Considering the relative close characteristic of the river basin in arid inland, a comprehensive index system on evaluating sustainable use of water resources has been suggested in this paper. It includes 14 indexes and four subsystems about water resources condition, society, economy and ecological environment.(2) By the coupled entropy and projection pursuit theory, we can have a greater understanding of the present state of sustainable use of water resources. The results showed that the utilization potential of water resources trends to increase. The utilization level was poor and the water resources potential was small in 2000. The sustainable level of water resources would get better with water saving irrigation practice and industry structural adjustment in 2010 and 2020. (3) The water resources condition is the most important factor to affect water resources sustainable level in the basin. In order to accomplish the water resources sustainable use, some measures has been put forward as follows: a) paying more attention to the deep exploitation of water resources; b) reducing the agricultural water use and implementing water saving irrigation; c) developing water-efficient industry; d) increasing the ratio of micro-salty water in irrigation; e) and looking for new water resources. Through these measures, the gap between the supply and demand of water resources can be minimized, and also the water resources sustainable utilization level would be improved.