城镇化与生态系统服务的协调演化特征及空间耦合关系

生态系统服务作为连接自然环境与社会经济的桥梁与城镇化耦合协调关系的研究备受瞩目。以中国333个城市为研究单元,通过综合评价指标体系计算了2010年、2015年的城镇化水平与生态系统服务能力,同时分析了两者的时空演变特征,最后采用空间计量模型探索了生态系统服务与城镇化之间的关系。研究显示:(1)全国城市的城镇化水平呈现"东高-西低,南高-北低"的空间格局,均值由2010年的0.0792增加到2015年的0.0987,增长了24.62%,大部分城市仍处于萌芽发展阶段,仅上海市和深圳市进入高度发达阶段;(2)全国城市的生态系统服务能力呈现"东南高-西北低"的空间格局,均值由2010年的0.2542升高到2015年的0.2621,提高了3.11%,但有81个城市的均值由2010年的0.1201下降至2015年的0.1183,降低了1.50%,形成了恶化形势显著的空间聚集特征;(3)城镇化综合得分及人口、土地和经济城镇化的空间误差模型估计系数分别为-0.1303、-0.2019、-0.2404和0.1946,经济发展或已成为改善生态系统服务的有力抓手。据此我们建议,城市发展应加强生态空间统筹管理,尝试跨区域经济合作发展,协调人口、土地与经济三维度下城镇化进程。

Characteristics of coordination changes and spatial coupling relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services

The study of the coupling and coordination relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services as a bridge connecting the natural environment with the social economy has received widespread attention. Selecting 333 cities in China, we calculated the urbanization level and ecosystem service capacity with the integrated evaluation index in 2010 and 2015. At the same time, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the urbanization level and ecosystem service capacity were analyzed, and the spatial econometric model was used to explore the relationship between ecosystem services and urbanization. The study found that: (1) the urbanization level of the cities shows the spatial pattern of "East High-West Low, and South High-North Low". The average value increased from 0.0792 in 2010 to 0.0987 in 2015, which increased by 24.62%. Most cities are still in the preparation development stage, while only Shanghai and Shenzhen have entered a highly developed stage. (2) The urban ecosystem service capacity shows a "Southeast High-Northwest Low" spatial pattern, whose average value increased from 0.2542 in 2010 to 0.2621 in 2015, with an increasing of 3.11%. But the average value of 81 cities dropped from 0.1201 in 2010 to 0.1183 in 2015, with a decreasing of 1.50%, which have formed a spatial aggregation feature of the significant deterioration. (3) By the Spatial Error Model, the regression coefficients of the score of integrated urbanization, population urbanization, land urbanization, and economic urbanization are -0.1303, -0.2019, -0.2404, and 0.1946, respectively. Economic development has become a powerful tool for improving ecosystem services. Finally, we suggest that the coordinated management of ecological space should be strengthened; the inter-regional economic cooperation development mechanism needs to be established; and the population growth, land construction, and economic development should be coordinated.