动态物候模型发展及其在全球变化研究中的应用

物候模型可以通过环境因子预测植物物候期，是植物物候学一个重要内容。其中，试图反映生物过程的动态物候模型往往预测比较准确，因此这类物候模型有助于探讨植物在全球变化中的响应。本文把动态物候模型分为3大类，温度物候模型、冷激物候模型和其它物候模型，阐述了每个模型的基本原理和假设，重点论述了常见的温度物候模型.提出物候模型的真实性和广泛性还需要进一步提高，并介绍了温度物候模型在全球变化中运用的几个代表案例，指出目前的物候模型研究刚刚起步，还有许多方面需要进一步深入和开拓。

Dynamic phenological models and their application in climate change research

Phyto-phenology is environment. In the beginning defined as the relationships between recurring vegetation cycle and , it mainly contributed to and adhered to agriculture, and in last century, several dozens of phenological models have been developed. These models could be classified into two groups, i. e., static model and dynamic model. The latter attempts to describe the physiological processes which preceded phenophase occurrence, and thus, could be used to somewhat accurately speculate the commencement dates of phenophases. In this paper, the dynamic phenological models including temperature model, chilling model and others were outlined, among which, temperature model is drawn more concentration than the other models. The underlying principles and hypotheses of the models were described, and several cases of their application in global change were demonstrated. The study of dynamic phenological models was just at its inspiring beginning, and there were more work to be done.