单位面积杆数对温室标准切花菊品质影响的预测模型

通过对切花菊不同品种、不同单株主杆数、不同定植密度和不同定植日期的试验，定量分析了单位面积杆数对标准切花菊叶面积指数动态变化规律和各外观品质指标的影响，在此基础上，构建了以冠层吸收的生理辐热积为指标的可定量预测单位面积不同杆数对温室标准切花菊品质影响的预测模型，并用与建模相独立的试验数据对模型进行了检验.结果表明：随单位面积杆数的增加，切花菊的叶面积指数增加，其植株的平均株高、茎粗、出叶数、花径均降低.所建模型对多杆栽培和不同密度单杆栽培的标准切花菊单杆地上部分鲜质量、株高、茎粗、出叶数、花径和单位面积出花枝数的预测值与实测值的决定系数（R²）分别为0.95、0.96、0.94、0.91、0.81和0.97，预测相对误差分别为16.1%、10.1%、12.8%、13.4%、15.9%和16.1%，模型模拟精度较高.该模型可为温室标准切花菊栽培密度和栽培杆数的优化以及品质的光温调控提供理论依据和决策支持.

Effects of stem numbers per ground area on the quality of standard cut Chrysanthemum morifolium in greenhouse: Simulation model

In order to understand the effects of stem numbers per ground area on the quality of standard cut Chrysanthemum morifolium, an experiment with different cultivars, different stem numbers per plant, different planting densities, and different planting dates was conducted in a greenhouse in Shanghai in 2005 and 2006. The effects of stem numbers per ground area on the canopy leaf area index and external quality of standard cut C. morifolium were quantified using the experimental data. Based on the physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR (PETP) the canopy absorbed, a model for predicting the effects of stem numbers per ground area on the quality of standard cut C. morifolium was developed, and validated with independent experimental data. The results showed that with the increase of stem numbers per ground area, the leaf area index increased, whereas plant height, stem diameter, leaf number, and flower diameter decreased. The model gave satisfactory predictions of the quality of standard cut C. morifolium cultivated with different stem numbers and planting density. The coefficient of determination (R2) and relative prediction error (RSE) based on the 1:1 line for fresh mass per stem, plant height, stem diameter, leaf number, flower diameter, and the number of qualified stem harvested per ground area were 0.95, 0.96, 0.94, 0.91, 0.81 and 0.97, and 16.1%, 10.1%, 12.8%, 13.4%, 15.9%, 16.1% , respectively. The model developed in this study could be used for the optimization of light and temperature management for standard cut C. morifolium cultivated with different stem numbers and planting densities in greenhouse.