基于灰色理论的机电系统全寿命小子样系统研究

描述了以机电系统全寿命序列为代表的时间序列混沌特性，分析了灰关联分析和GM模型在产品可靠性预测中可开拓贫信息的可行性，阐述了GM和BP方法在机电系统全寿命预测时的特长及缺陷，介绍了将灰色理论用于机电系统全寿命小子样系统研究取得的进展，并以3个工程实例进一步验证。旨在应用灰色理论对重大机电产品全寿命预测中的小样本开发有所突破。

Study on full life's few subsample system of electromechanical system based on gray theory

Chaos properties of time sequence,which takes the full-life sequence of electromechanical system as representative,were described.The feasibility of exploiting poor information by gray relevance analysis and GM model in the reliability prediction of product was analyzed.The advantages and shortcomings of GM and BP methods in full-life prediction of the electromechanical system were expounded,the advance acquired in applying gray theory by the authors to the full-life's few subsample system research of electromechanical system was introduced,and a further verification was made by three engineering living examples.The aim of this paper is to make a breakthrough to some extent on the development of few samples by applying the gray theory to the full-life prediction of significant electromechanical products.