| 烤烟醇化过程糖碱比、氮碱比的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐士军,李东亮,戴亚,许自成.烤烟醇化过程糖碱比、氮碱比的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型[J].中国烟草学报,2009,15(5):20-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐士军 李东亮 戴亚 许自成 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 川渝中烟工业公司技术研发中心,成都市成龙大道一段,610066
2. 河南农业大学国家烟草栽培生理生化研究基地,郑州市文化路95号,450002 |
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| 基金项目： | 川渝集团质量体系资金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了指导配方打叶的配方模块设计,利用灰色理论建立了烤烟醇化过程糖碱比GM（1,1）灰色模型、糖碱比新陈代谢GM（1,1）灰色模型、氮碱比GM（1,1）灰色模型、氮碱比指数平滑GM（1,1）灰色修正模型和氮碱比对数GM（1,1）灰色修正模型。模型检验结果表明,建立的各种糖碱比、氮碱比模型都有意义,而且可用作中、长期预测。糖碱比灰色模型精度较高,两种模型精度分别达到了98.37%和99.73%;氮碱比灰色模型通过指数平滑和对数修正后,模型精度分别达到了93.56%和88.52%。
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| 关 键 词： | 烤烟 醇化 糖碱比 氮碱比 GM（1 1）灰色模型 |
Grey model GM (1,1) of sugar to nicotine and nitrogen to nicotine ratios in flue-cured tobacco aging process |
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| TANG Shi-jun,LI Dong-liang,DAI Ya,XU Zi-cheng.Grey model GM (1,1) of sugar to nicotine and nitrogen to nicotine ratios in flue-cured tobacco aging process[J].Acta Tabacaria Sinica,2009,15(5):20-23. |
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| Authors: | TANG Shi-jun LI Dong-liang DAI Ya XU Zi-cheng |
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| Abstract: | In order to design prototype blending of leaf groups, sugar to nicotine ratio GM(1,1) grey model and metabolic GM (1,1) grey model, exponent smoothness GM (1,1) grey mode and logarithm GM (1,1) grey mode of nitrogen to nicotine in flue-cured tobacco aging process were established and tested. Results indicated that all models can be applied in medium and long-term sugar to nicotine ratio and nitrogen to nicotine ratio forecast. The accuracy of sugar to nicotine ratio model reached 98.37% and 99.73%, respectively while that of nitrogen to nicotine ratio was 93.56% and 88.52% when GM(1,1) grey model was modified by exponent smoothness and logarithm. |
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| Keywords: | flue-cured tobacco aging total sugar/nicotine ratio total nitrogen/nicotine ratio GM(1 1) grey model |
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