| 我国卷烟需求分析(上)——需求现状与模型构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 白远良,吴应禄,程晓苏.我国卷烟需求分析(上)——需求现状与模型构建[J].中国烟草学报,2007,13(3):6-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白远良 吴应禄 程晓苏 |
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| 作者单位： | 川渝中烟工业公司,成都红星路二段86号,610017 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：本课题能得以顺利完成,离不开川渝中烟工业公司创造的良好研究环境,也离不开国家局计划司、运行司和信息中心等部门的支持,在此,对关心本课题的各位领导和朋友们表示衷心的感谢. |
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| 摘 要： | 为了科学分析我国卷烟需求和构建符合国情的卷烟需求模型,对比分析了宏观社会经济发展指标与卷烟消费的关联性;在5个假设条件基础上,通过修正Theil-Barten需求模型,构建了我国卷烟需求的基础模型。并以此模型为基础,建立了4个模型用于分析居民消费支出、卷烟价格、地区差异、经济增长、产业升级、城乡居民消费差异和卷烟平均消费倾向对我国卷烟需求的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 卷烟需求 价格 地区差异 经济增长 卷烟平均消费倾向 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5708（2007）03-0006-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-06 |
An analysis of cigarette demand in China(Ⅰ)——current status and model building |
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| BAI Yuan-liang,WU Ying-lu,CHENG Xiao-su.An analysis of cigarette demand in China(Ⅰ)——current status and model building[J].Acta Tabacaria Sinica,2007,13(3):6-10. |
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| Authors: | BAI Yuan-liang WU Ying-lu CHENG Xiao-su |
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| Affiliation: | China Tobacco Chuanyu Industrial Corporation |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze cigarette demand and establish reasonable cigarette demand model of China's cigarette market,relationship between macroeconomic indicators and cigarette consumption was investigated.Based on five assumptions,Theil-Barten demand model was revised to construct the basic cigarette demand model from which derived four models to analyze the impacts of residents consumption expenditure,cigarette price,regional difference,economic growth,industry upgrade,consumption difference between rural and urban residents,and average propensity to cigarette consumption on cigarette demand in China. |
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| Keywords: | cigarette demand price regional difference economic growth average propensity to cigarette consumption |
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