基于不确定性理论的乳品降膜蒸发器设计

基于蒙特卡洛不确定性方法,研究了乳品三效降膜蒸发器中参数和模型两类不确定性对设计结果的影响。结果表明,与参数不确定性相比,模型不确定性导致的蒸发器传热性能变化更为显著。通过综合考虑参数不确定性与模型不确定性的影响,提出模型集成法以降低模型不确定性,提高模型预测可靠性。基于不同的设计概率选取蒸发器传热面积,可为不同设计条件和不同操作条件下的蒸发器设计和运行提供理论依据。

A new design method of dairy falling-film evaporators based on uncertainty theory

In the process design of falling film evaporator,there are uncertainties in the design parameters and heat transfer model,which increases the difficulty of falling film evaporator design.Therefore, based on the Monte Carlo uncertainty method,the influence of the uncertainty of the parameters and the model in the three-effect falling film evaporator of dairy products on the design results is studied.The results showed that,compared with parameter uncertainty,the change of evaporator heat transfer performance caused by model uncertainty was more significant.By comprehensively considering the influence of parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty,a model ensembling method was proposed to reduce model uncertainty and improve model prediction reliability.The heat transfer area of the evaporator was selected based on different design probabilities,which provided a theoretical basis for the design and operation of the evaporator under different design conditions and different operating conditions.