渤海湾盆地与苏北盆地勘探潜力对比研究

渤海湾盆地和苏北盆地虽然在成盆、成烃条件方面有较大差异，但两个盆地有着相似的油气发现规律和发现过程。对比两个盆地的储量增长特征、资源探明程度和探明速度、油田规模分布以及所处勘探阶段后认为渤海湾盆地油田规模分布服从对数正态分布，大、中型油田占油田总数的64%，储量增长已越过正弦曲线的峰值期，总体仍处在发现高峰晚期阶段，预计在2000年之后将出现新的储量增长高峰，预测勘探潜力主要在陆上的深层和诸多新类型油气藏以及广阔的海上勘探领域。苏北盆地油田规模不完全服从对数正态分布但正向其逼近，以小型和特小型油田为主，新增探明储量呈高基值低起伏式增长，目前正处在储量发现高峰早期阶段，约在“十五”期末可能达到储量增长峰值期，预测长远的勘探潜力主要在斜坡、深层、东部天然气和广阔的海域。只要研究、技术、资金等投入到位，预测渤海湾盆地和苏北盆地“十五”期间的油气勘探开发发展速度基本与“九五”期间相当。图6参4（王孝陵摘）

A comparison study on the exploration potential between Bohai Bay basin and Subei basin.

Although big differences exist in basin formation and hydrocarbon formation, there are still similar discovery rule and process between Bohai Bay basin and Subei basin. The cognizance achieved through the comparison studies on reserve increase, accumulate reserve to resource ratio, reserve proveness velocity, the distribution of oilfield size and the exploration stage between the two basins indicates that for the Bohai Bay basin, the distribution of oilfield size accords with lognormal distribution, large and medium oilfields account for 64% of total oilfields number, reserve increase has passed the peak of sine curve and still in later high peak period, the new peak is predicted after the year 2000, the potential will be in deep prospects, various new type of reservoir onshore and wide exploration domain offshore. For the Subei basin, the distribution of oilfield size does not accord with a complete lognormal distribution. Most oilfields are small in size, the reserve increases rapidly and waves gently, its petroleum exploration is in early high peak period and will get into the later high peak period by the end of the tenth “Five-Year Plan". The potential will be in slope, deep prospects, gas prospects in the eastern basin and wide exploration domain offshore. As long as the research, technology, investment could be ensured, the speed of the exploration and development in the tenth “Five-Year Plan" period of the two basins will keep the same as that in the ninth “Five-Year Plan" period.