中国石油上游业的回顾与展望

中国石油上游业过去的60多年，油气快速"增储上产"，未来20年将持续增长。2030年，石油产量预计达到（2.5~3.0）×10⁸t，天然气产量预计达到（2 500~3 000）×10⁸m³，煤层气和页岩气产量将突破1 000×10⁸m³，均具有资源基础。认真汲取历史经验教训，勇于实践、及时总结，遵循"阶段不可逾越，节奏可以加快"原则，坚持科技进步、科学决策，及时改进经营管理方式，保证足够的实物工作量投入，传承和发扬"爱国、奉献"精神等，是实现上述目标的前提和保证。

Review and prospect on the upstream petroleum industry in China

Over the past 60 years, the reserves and production of China's petroleum upstream industry have undergone rapid growth, which will no doubt continue to grow in the next 20 years. By 2030, oil production will have reached (2.5~3.0)×10⁸ t, and natural gas production (2 500~3 000)×10⁸ m³; coal-bed methane and shale gas production will have broken through 1 000×10⁸m³, all of which lies on reliable resources. The premise and guarantee of achieving the above goals are to learn historic experience and lessons seriously, to practice bravely and summarize promptly, to follow the principle of "do not break the stage of petroleum exploration, but the rhythm of working can be faster", to persist in relying on sci-tech progress and scientific decisions, to improve the mode of operation and management timely, to ensure adequate input of physical workload for exploration, and to inherit and carry forward the spirits of patriots and dedication.