基于多层次灰色聚类的储罐风险评价方法研究

油田站场内的储罐区具有大容积、分布集中、易燃易爆等特点,储罐失效成为影响站场完整性和安全的重要因素。目前,对储罐及其他站内静设备的评价方法主要采用基于风险的检验(RBI)技术,但传统的RBI对设备修正系数的评价未考虑不同因子之间的影响权重,同时未考虑到过渡分值的影响。针对这一问题,采用多层次灰色聚类评价模型,建立了三级评价指标体系,对影响设备修正系数的指标进行权重排序,得到影响失效概率的主要因素,并利用过渡分值构建评价样本矩阵。通过实例分析对模型进行了验证,结果表明,该方法可以很好地处理储罐风险评价这类多层次、多变量、非线性的复杂问题。

Risk Assessment Method Study of Storage Tank Based on Multi-level Grey Clustering

The storage tank area in oilfield stations has the characteristics of large volume,concentrated distribution,flammable and explosive trend,etc.The failure of storage tank has become an important factor affecting the integrity and safety of station.At present,the evaluation methods of storage tanks and other static equipment in stations are mainly based on the risk-based inspection(RBI)technology.However,traditional RBI evaluation of equipment correction coefficient does not take into account the influence weight between different factors and the influence of the transition score.In order to solve this problem,the multi-level gray clustering evaluation model is used to establish a three-level evaluation index system.The indexes affecting the equipment correction coefficient are ranked by weight,and the main factors affecting the failure probability are obtained.The transition score is used to construct the evaluation sample matrix,and the model is verified by case analysis.The results show that this method can deal well with the multi-level,multivariate and nonlinear problems of tank risk assessment.