天然气在构建清洁低碳能源体系中的地位与作用

全球天然气消费持续保持快速增长，2040年有望成为第一大能源。欧美典型国家碳达峰后，天然气成为推动能源绿色低碳转型的主力能源，国际石油公司将天然气业务作为能源转型的发力点。我国在构建清洁能源体系中，天然气将发挥不可替代的重要作用：天然气代煤是我国2030年前实现碳达峰的重要抓手，天然气发电是电力系统灵活调峰的最佳选择，天然气是推动新能源发展的“最佳伙伴”，将为我国新能源规模化发展提供有力支撑。结合专家分析与能源系统建模预测，我国天然气消费将在2035—2040年达峰，峰值约为6500×10⁸m³，此后缓慢下降，2060年消费量约为5200×10⁸m³，工业燃料和天然气发电是增长主力。为构建有韧性的清洁低碳高效能源体系，提出4点建议：一是充分利用国内外“两种资源、两个市场”，加大天然气勘探开发力度，夯实国产天然气“压舱石”地位，强化与资源国多方式合作，构建多元化进口气格局；二是统筹天然气与可再生能源融合发展，打造“气风光水”一体化示范基地；三是加强天然气调峰储备体系建设，提高调峰和应急储备能力；四是推进气价、电价和碳税相关价格体制机制创新，提高天然气竞争力。

Natural Gas Position and Role in Construction of Clean Low-carbon Energy System

Global natural gas consumption continues to grow rapidly. Natural gas is likely to become the largest energy by 2040. It is the main energy to promote green low-carbon transition after the typical European and American countries reach the carbon peak. International oil companies regarded natural gas business as an engine for energy transformation. Natural gas will play an important and irreplaceable role in construction of China’s clean energy system. Use of natural gas for replacement of coal is an important way for China to reach the carbon peak before 2030. Natural gas-fueled electricity generation is the best option for flexible peak adjustment of the electric power system. As the “best partner” for promotion of new energy development, natural gas will effectively back up China’s large-scale development of new energy. Based on analysis of experts and prediction from energy system modeling, China’s natural gas consumption will peak between 2035 and 2040 at about 6500×10⁸m³and then decline slowly. The annual consumption is estimated to be about 5200×10⁸m³in 2060. Industrial fuel and natural gas-fueled electricity generation are the main areas for growth. This paper comes up with four suggestions on construction of the tenacious clean, low-carbon and high-efficiency energy system. First of all, it is necessary to make full use of the “two resources and two markets” both inside and outside China, step up the efforts for natural gas exploration and development, consolidate the “stabilizer” position of domestic natural gas production, enhance various cooperation with the resource nations, and establish a number of channels for natural gas imports. Secondly, it is necessary to unify the efforts for integrated development of natural gas and renewable energy and establish the demonstration bases for integration of “gas, wind, solar and hydraulic” energy. Thirdly, the efforts should be strengthened for construction of the natural gas peak-adjusting and storing system, thus improving the peak-adjusting and emergency restoring capacity. Fourthly, it is necessary to promote innovative of the mechanism for the gas price, electricity price and carbon-related price system so as to improve the competitiveness of natural gas.