QHD32-6油田电泵机组故障预测方法及其现场应用

为加强QHD32-6油田电泵井管理和有效预测电泵机组发生故障的概率,应用模糊综合评判方法,建立了引发电泵机组故障的因素集、权重集和判断集,给出了影响因素风险系数计算方法和单井风险评价等级标准,建立了电泵井机组故障预测模型。该方法能够预测运转电泵机组故障概率高的井。实际应用表明,2013年上半年应用该方法预测机组故障概率,其准确率达77.78%,累计挽回产量损失7 075 m3。该方法预测准确率能满足工程技术分析需要,为电泵井优化管理提供了技术支持。

Fault prediction method and field application of QHD32-6 oilfield electric pump unit

To enhance the management of QHD32-6 oilfield electric pump wells and predict effectively the probability of faults of electric pump units, fuzzy comprehensive judgment method is applied to establish the element set, weight set and judgment set of faults of electric pump units, to provide the calculation method of risk coefficient of influencing factor and criterion of risk evaluation level of single well and to establish the fault prediction model of electric pump units. This method can predict the wells with high fault probability of operating electric pump unit. The actual application shows that the accuracy of application of this method in fault probability prediction of units was 77.78 % in the first half of 2013 and accumulative production loss saved is 7,075 m3. The predict accuracy of this method can meet the demand for engineering and technical analysis to provide technical support for optimized management of electric pump.