中国页岩气勘探开发面临的问题与对策

为加快中国页岩气产业的发展步伐，探讨了中国页岩气勘探开发面临的问题，并提出相应的应对措施。分析认为，页岩气要成为中国天然气勘探开发的后备领域，形成产业化规模并为调整和优化能源结构、缓减天然气供需矛盾作出贡献，至少需要解决4个问题：①中国是否存在页岩气；②页岩气的单井产量有多高；③页岩气藏的规模有多大；④开采页岩气的成本是否划算。四川盆地长宁、威远地区钻获丰富的页岩气，初步回答了中国有无页岩气的问题，但是，中国页岩气的勘探开发还面临着资源、环境、技术、成本和政策等5个方面的挑战：①页岩气资源评价、储量计算和产能预测的方法需要探索，页岩气资源量、储量和产能尚不清楚；②中国页岩气勘探开发受环境制约，环保要求高；③页岩气的评价技术和核心工艺技术还不完全掌握；④成本是制约页岩气效益开发的关键因素；⑤现有天然气勘探开发的一些技术标准不适应页岩气勘探开发，中国缺少发展页岩气产业的系统扶持政策等。针对上述问题，建议当前应当做好矿权秩序维护、科技攻关、政策扶持、标准制订、先导试验区建设和体制创新等工作。

Bottlenecks and countermeasures in shale gas exploration and development of China

To stimulate the recovery and production of shale gas in China, bottlenecks in its exploration and development are discussed and the corresponding countermeasures are presented herein. It is still doubted if shale gas can become reserve resources of natural gas exploration and development, whether or not it can be put into commercial production and make contribution to adjusting and optimizing the energy structure and relieving the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas in China. In view of this, there are at least four questions to be answered: (1) Does shale gas really exist in China? (2) How much is its per well productivity? (3) On what scale will shale gas reservoirs be discovered? (4) Will it be cost effective to exploit shale gas? Good news from Changning and Weiyuan in the Sichuan Basin proves that abundant shale gas does exist in China. However, the exploration and development of shale gas in China has to meet challenges in respect of resource reserves, environment, technology, cost, and policies. For example, under the present pressure from the environment requirement, the shale gas resource extent, reserves, and production capacity are still unveiled; more methods of resource evaluation, reserve calculation, and productivity forecast are to be explored; the shale gas evaluation and its core techniques have not been mastered; the input cost is the key factor restricting the commercial production of shale gas; the current technical criteria for natural gas are not adaptable for shale gas exploration and development; and there is still lack of government's preferential policies to support the shale gas development. Aiming at the above problems, this paper presents the following countermeasures: to keep in good order the mining rights, to smooth technical difficulties, to find support from government's policies, to establish the related standards and regulations, to construct pilot test zones, and to innovate the management system, and so on.